Industry Status as of May 2008 - March 2008 has come in at 10%, well above our expectations. Year-to-date growth has now moved from -0.2% to 3.8% growth improving the outlook for the rest of the year. We still remain concerned about excess capacity.
300mm Status as of April 2008 - 300mm wafers have been a huge success for semiconductor manufacturers currently representing just under 50% of all wafer processing on a square inches basis, furthermore we forecast that 300mm wafers will exceed 50% by year end. The only laggards on 300mm have been the equipment companies that are still stuggling to recoup their investement in developing 300mm equipment. That lack of return on investment for the equipment companies is the single largest impediment to the implementation of 450mm wafers.
AMD Versus Intel - a comparison of processes, wafer and die costs for Intel and AMD 65nm processors calculated using the 2008 IC Cost Model.
Industry Status as of April 2008 - 2008 has begun with two months of negative growth. Due to excess capacity coming on-line coupled with the weak US economy we believe 2008 will be a year of negative growth overall.
Industry Status as of March 2008 - the SIA numbers for January show -0.2% growth. We remain concerned that too much capacity coming on-line in 2008 is going to lead to negative growth for the year.
Indus tus as of February 2008 - the SIA numbers for December show 1.7% growth for the month and 2.7% growth for the year. 2007 was a year where growth swung from positive to negative month-to-month. Based on currently planned new capacity for 2008 we believe there is a strong risk of over-capacity leading to negative growth for the year.
Industry Status as of January 2008 - the SIA numbers for Novmeber show -0.7% growth versus the same month a year earlier. 2007 has been a year of growth swinging positive and then negative month-to-month. We now expect that too much capacity coming on-line in 2008 will likely lead to negative growth for the year.
Industry Status as of December 2007 - the SIA numbers for October show resonable growth at 6.6% month over month. We expect Q4 to show moderate growth and growth for the year to end at around 4%. We remain concerned that too much capacity coming on-line could lead to a down-turn in 2008.
Industry Status as of November 2007 - the SIA numbers for September show very weak growth. This year continues to occilate between months with little of even negative growth and months with high single digit growth.
Industry Status as of October 2007 - the SIA revenue numbers for August showed a second month of strong growth at 9% versus the same month last year. Year-to-date growth has now improved to 3.8% and the second half is looking like it will be farily strong.
Industry Status as of September 2007 - the SIA revenue numbers for July have again moved positive at 9.3% growth versus the same month last year. July's numbers coupled with better utilization at the leading foundries are a positive signs for the second half of 2007.
Industry Status as of August 2007 - the SIA revenue numbers for June showed negative growth for the second consecutive month. There are some positive signs for the second half of 2007 with the major foundries reporting improving utilization. We currently expect 2007 to show positive growth overall but only in the low to mid single digits.
Industry Status as of July 2007 - the SIA revenue numbers for May 2007 represent -0.6% growth versus the same month last year. We continue to be concerned that excess capacity coming on-line is going to hold growth to the low single digits for 2007.
Industry Status as of June 2007 - The SIA has released revenue numbers for April 2007 of $18.01 billion dollars (raw numbers not 3 month moving average). The April numbers are up from $17.11 billion dollars in April of 2006 and represents 5.3% growth month-over-month up from 2.7% in march. This is a positive sign in the ASP versus volume trade-off we expect to determine the growth rate for 2007.
Industry Status as of April 2007 - February's growth was a very weak 0.2% down from January's 12.6%. We expect that a balancing act will go on all year between ASP and volume with 7% revenue growth expected. We are concerned that 2008 will be a down year if capacity growth continues.
Industry Status as of March 2007 - January's growth of 12.6% is a surprisingly strong start to 2007 after December's weak 2.1% growth. The January growth is a good first sign for 2007.
Industry Status as of February 2007 - December growth was a weak 2.1% bringing the year over year growth for all of 2006 down to 8.5%. The weak December casts a shadow over the first quarter of 2007.
Industry Status as of January 2007 - Novembers growth came it at a very strong 14.2% versus November of 2005. We expect 2006 to end at just over 9% growth for the year and 2007 to begin with normal seasonal weakness and show 13% growth for the year.
We have updated our IC revenue history and forecast to include actual data through Q3-2006 and forecasts out to Q4-2008. We expect 2006 to end at 9.8% growth, 2007 to see 13% growth and 2008 a mild downturn.
Industry Status as of December 2006 - Octobers growth came in at a strong 11.0% versus October of 2005. We expect 2006 to end with 9% year-over-year growth.
Industry Status as of November 2006 - Septembers growth strengthened over Augusts growth coming in at 9.1% versus 7.7% for August. We are now forecasting growth for the year to end in the 9% to 11% range.
Industry Status as of October 2006 - August growth moderated from the last three months coming in at 7.7% versus August 2005. We continue to expect 2006 to end with 10% to 12% growth for the full year.
Industry Status as of September 2006 - July showed strong growth up 12.0% versus July 2005 and year-to-date growth is now 8.3%. We expect growth for the year to end at 10% to 12%.
Industry Status as of August 2006 - June showed good growth up 11.8% over June 2005 and year-to-date growth is now at 7.8% versus the same period last year. Year-to-date performance and reports of excess inventory in the channel have led us to lower our 2006 forecast to 10% from 19% at the beginning of the year.
Industry Status as of July 2006 - May once again showed strong growth versus 2005 reenforcing our belief that 2006 will show double digit growth over 2005.
Industry Status as of June 2006 - April's growth moderated after strong growth in March. It isn't clear yet whether this represents the effects of the inventory builds and high energy cost effects the SIA warned about for March.
Industry Status as of May 2006 - March revenue showed strong growth of 12.2% over February of a year ago. The strong growth is tempered by concerns of inventory building and the effect of high energy prices.
History and Forecast March 2006 - a quarterly history and forecast for ICs through the end of 2006 including dollars, units, wafer starts and utilization. We are forecasting 19% growth for 2006.
Industry Status as of February 2006 - December continued Novembers strong revenue growth versus the same month in 2004. 2005 has now ended with 7.1% growth versus 2004. We currently expect 2006 to be an up year with greater than 10% growth probable.
Industry Status as of January 2006 - November revenue growth once again strengthened after a weak October. We currently expect 2006 to be an up year with greater than 10% growth probable.
Industry Status as of November 2005 - September revenue growth continues to show a strong recovery from the weak/negative growth of the last few months. We have been predicting stronger revenue growth in the second half of 2005 and with August and now September moving in that direction we are increasingly confident in a strong second half.
Industry Status as of October 2005 - August revenue growth has made a strong recovery from the weak/negative growth of the last few months. We have been predicting stronger revenue growth in the second half and August certainly represents a positive step in that direction.
Industry Status as of September 2005 - July revenue growth has recovered to slightly positive growth versus Junes negative growth. We expect revenue growth to strengthen in the second half but we are concerned about the effect of high energy prices.
Industry Status as of August 2005 - June worldwide revenue numbers are down from June 2004 representing the first month of negative growth this year. We currently expect the second half to strengthen but our confidence in our forecast is not strong.
Industry Status as of July 2005 - May worldwide revenue is showing moderating growth compared to prior months in 2005 rasing the specter of a weaker than expected second half.
Industry Status as of June 2005 - Aprils worldwide revenue continues to show growth although somewhat slower than at the start of Q1. Recent announcements by several global leaders in semiconductors have us bullish for the balance of Q2.
Industry Status as of March 2005 - Worldwide revenue for January 2005 was up sharply versus any January previously recorded. January revenue was well above where we expected it to be and if this trend continues we will have to revise our 2005 forecast sharply upward.
Industry Status as of February 2005 - Worldwide growth for December is once again weakening and we now believe that 2005 will show negative IC revenue growth.
History and Forecast Jan 2005 - quarterly revenue, units, wafer starts and utilization for the IC industry. (01/19/2005) Updated (01/24/2005)
Wafer Costs 2005 - unprobed logic wafer costs for North America. (01/11/2005)
Industry Status as of January 2005 - Worldwide growth for November is strengthening and we now believe that although 2004 will end weak and 2005 start weak, IC revenue growth for 2005 will be 18%.
Industry Status as of January 2005 - Worldwide growth for November is strengthening and we now believe that although 2004 will end weak and 2005 start weak, IC revenue growth for 2005 will be 18%.
Industry Status as of December 2004 - Worldwide growth for October continues to be weak and falling utilization rates now have us concerned that Q1-2005 may be the start of a downturn.
Industry Status as of November 2004 - Worldwide growth for September showed some improvement but the second half outlook is still weak. We are also now concerned about a possible 2005 downturn.
Industry status as of September 2004 - Worldwide revenue continue to grow with July up 33% versus July 2003 and year-to-date revenue up 35.9%. This is however, moderate growth compared to earlier in the year. (09/02/2004)
A Memo to Chicken Little - the semiconductor sky is not falling, in fact prospects are good for a strong second half. (8/12/2004)
Industry status as of August 2004 - Worldwide revenue continue to grow with June up 41% versus June 2003 and year-to-date revenue up 36.4%. (08/02/2004)
Industry status as of July 2004 - Worldwide revenue continues to show strong growth with year-to-date revenue growth of 35.4%. (07/02/2004)
Revenue trends - the worldwide semiconductor industry revenue and growth rate by year through 200,3 with 2004 through 2008 estimates. Updated (4/20/2004)
Cost per function trend - an updated version of this chart with data through 2003 on the costs of a megabit of DRAM, a MIP of Intel processor power or TI DSP power, a million transistors or a million Xilinx FPGA gates. (02/18/2004)
Recovery Status August 2003 - the first six months of 2003 have shown growth over 2002, but as each additional month of data is added the year-to-date growth rate is falling. (08/28/2003)
Mask Costs - the effect of rising mask set costs on wafer fabrication costs. (08/05/2003)
Has the recovery stalled? - an updated examination of monthly sales data for the worldwide semiconductor industry shows that from mid 2002 to March of 2003 the industry had started out performing 2001, but now revenue has fallen back to 2001 levels. Has the recovery stalled? (06/03/2003)
Has the recovery begun? - an updated examination of monthly sales data for the worldwide semiconductor industry shows that since mid 2002 the industry is out performing 2001. Is this a recovery? (05/18/2003)
300mm Revenue - a discussion of how much revenue it takes to make a 300mm fab economical. (04/22/2003)
Cost per function trend - an updated version of this chart with data through 2002 on costs of a megabit of DRAM memory, a million instructions per second of microprocessor power and a million transistors. (03/07/2003)
Unprobed wafer costs - approximate 2003 costs for unprobed wafers by technology level and mask count.(01/07/2002)
Has the recovery begun? - an examination of monthly sales data for the worldwide semiconductor industry shows that 2002 is starting to out-perform 2001. Is this the start of a recovery? (11/25/2002)
The status of 300mm November 2002 - a forecast of the number of 300mm fabs on-line by year and the resulting wafer output. (11/15/2002)
Its not easy being a foundry - lower foundry utilization, lower yields at foundries and 300mm push-outs, what do all these recent announcements mean to the foundry industry? (9/24/2002)
300mm push-outs - our latest 300mm Fab forecast based on a complete review of our data. The graph contrasts the current forecast to prior forecasts. (10/29/2001)
Properties of Silicon - a discussion of st mechanical and electrical properties of silicon. Left click to view, right click and e ta " to download, 273Kb pdf. Free pdf viewer.
Chemical Mechanical Planarization
Chemical Mechanical Planarization - principles and equipment used for Chemical Mechanical Planarization. Left click to view, right " et as..." to download, 21Kb pdf. >Dev
Introduction to IC Devices written in the same style and at the same level as Introduction to IC Technology. Introduction to IC Devices is an introductory ch a new a href="our_produc gy.h Technology report. To download Introduction to IC Devices go to the 2003 IC Technology page and select the chapter list, the free download may be accessed from the chapter list.
Dielectric deposition
Atomic Layer Deposition Tutorial - contributed by Cambridge Nano Tech, a producer of ALD equipment. This tutorial goes over the bas proce ludes an extensive list of films e de LD. Left click to view, right click and "Save target as..." to download, 2,913Kb pdf. Free pdf viewer.
Atomic Layer Deposition - atomic layer deposition is an emerging technology that has the potential to meet thin film deposition requirements for the next severa ns of echn cli right click and "Save target as..." to download, 100.7Kb pdf. Free pdf viewer.
Atomic Layer Deposition - principles and equipment used for Atomic Layer Deposition. Left click to view, right click and "Save target as..." to download, 28Kb pdf.
High-k gate oxides - as the size of MOSFETs shrinks, silicon dioxide the gate "oxide" used since the industry began is running out of steam. When, what and why will silicon dioxide be replaced. Left click to view, rig "Save target as..." to download, 29Kb pdf. Free pdf viewer.
Diffusion - New December 16, 2006
Diffusion in Silicon - diffusion is the movement of impurities in a material due to thermal energy induced random motion. In thi chnic the theory of diffusion in silicon is discussed in det ick ht click and "Save target as..." to download, 885Kb pdf.
Failure Analysis
Surface and Bulk Analysis Techniques - A chart of analysis techniques useful to the semiconductor industry with the capabilities of each technique. Le view ick and "Save target a to d 4Kb pdf. Free pdf viewer.
SOI Wafer Technology for CMOS ICs - an 11 page review article on Silicon-On-Insulator (SOI) wafers, how they fit into state-of-the-art CMOS and the technologies used to make SOI wafers. Written by Bob Simon ick to view, right click and "Save target as..." to download, 131.4Kb pdf.
Properties of Silicon at 300K - a table of silicon properties at room temperatures. Left click to view, right click and "Save target as..." to download, 40Kb pdf. Free pdf viewer.
Gross and Net Die Calculator - The Free versioncalculates whole die per wafer based on wafer size, die size and edge exclusion, calculates net die using a Murphy, SEEDS, exponential or Poisson model. Left click to v lick and "Save target as..." to download, 234Kb. Requires excel 2000 or higher.
Atomic Layer Deposition - principles and equipment used for Atomic Layer Deposition. Left click to view, right click and "Save target as..." to download, 28Kb pdf.
Photolit
Immersion Lithography- immersion lithography has the potential to extend optical lithography through the end of the decade. Learn about this import hnolo lick to view, right click a ve t quot; to download, 29Kb pdf.Free pdf viewer.
DUV Photolithography Process - a 3D color illustration of a Deep Ultraviolet Photolithography process. Left click to view, right click and "Save target as..." to download, 177Kb pdf.
Stepper Technology - 3D color illustrations of the key elements of stepper technology including stepper optic, excimer laser sources, stage control and pattern stepping. Left click to view, right click and "Save target as...& nload, 75.8Kb pdf.
Safety
Gas Safety Data Summary - a chart listing gases used in the semiconductor industry and their properties with particular relevance to safety. Left click to view, right " et as..." to 33Kb f="http://www.adobe.com/products/acrobat/readstep.html">Free pdf viewer.
2006 IC Economics - a report covering IC costs and eco 2006, r, 198 pages, 42 tablC "-
Sonic Cleaning - principles and equipment used for ultrasonic and megasonic particle removal. Left click to view, right click and "Save target as..." to download, 19Kb pdf.
2006 IC Economics - a report covering IC costs and economics. Published July 2006, full color, 198 pages, 42 tables and 172 figures. Cost $1,000. ORDER NOW!
2006 IC Technology - This report covers introductory material, process integration, unit steps and materials. Published February 2006, $900 for the full report. This report is written at an introductory to intermediate level. ORDER NOW!
2006 IC Cost Model - a Microsoft Excel based - drop-down menu driven cost model that allows the user to easily calculate the cost of most ICs. Cost $1,650. Price includes free updates for the current years version as they are released. ORDER NOW!
MEMS Cost Model - a Microsoft Excel based - drop-down menu driven cost model that allows the user to easily calculate the cost of most MEMS devices. Cost $1,200. Price includes free updates for twelve months as they are released. ORDER NOW!
300mm Watch- an excel spreadsheet database listing announced 300mm projects with history and project details. Includes 12 months of updates. Updated regularly. Cost $1,000. Price includes 12 months of free updates. ORDER NOW!
2005 IC Packaging - The report is now available. This report covers the packaging industry, technology and costs, full color, 83 pages, with 38 figures and 33 tables. Cost $600. This report is written at an introductory to intermediate level. ORDER NOW!
Visual Guide to Semiconductor Process Equipment - This report covers every major category of production equipment. Published May 2004, full color, 101 pages long and including 108 figures and 16 tables, $200 for the full report. This report is written at an introductory to intermediate level. ORDER NOW!
Defect density trends - a graphical summary of defect density trends from 1960 to the present. Left click to view, right click and "Save target as..." to download, 28.7Kb pdf
Die size trends - a graphical summary of die size trends. Left click to view, right click and "Save target as..." to download, 21Kb pdf.
DRAM trends - a summary chart of DRAM technology over time.
Exponential Trends in the IC Industry - Updated - 02/12/2008 - a review of some of the key industry trends over time. Left click to view, right click and "Save target as..." to download, 114Kb pdf.
Microlithography trends - a graphical summary of linewidth, equipment cost, exposure source and photoresist trends. Left click to view, right click and "Save target as..." to download, 33Kb pdf.
Microprocessor trends - Updated 01/01/2008 - a summary chart of Intel microprocessor technology over time.
MOS logic complexity trends - trends in mask layers, process steps and process technology used to produce digital logic chips - primarily Intel microprocessors. Left click to view, right click and "Save target as..." to download, 21.5Kb pdf.
Transistors per integrated circuit trends - trends in transistors per integrated circuit. Left click to view, right click and "Save target as..." to download, 27.5Kb pdf.