IC Knowledge - Recovery 1203

October numbers show more strength

The SIA yesterday released revenue numbers for October 2003 of $15.26 billion dollars (raw number not 3 month moving average). The latest numbers show increasing strength for the semiconductor recovery.
Year-to-date year over year growth
Octobers revenue is an increase of 30.5% versus October 2002. Year-to-date the semiconductor industry has grown 15.5% versus 2002 up from 13.8% last month. October is the fourth consecutive month that the year-to-date percentage growth has grown and the size of the growth is particualarly strong this month, see table.

Table 1 - Year-to-date growth rate for 2003 versus 2002

Month

Growth

Jan

19.5%

Feb

16.7%

Mar

13.0%

Apr

12.5%

May

12.3%

Jun

11.7%

Jul

11.6%

Aug

12.4%

Sep

13.8%

Oct

15.5%

Month versus month revenue
Another interesting analysis of the status of the recovery is the graph illustrated in figure 1.

In figure 1 the blue line represents 2000, the peak semiconductor revenue year. The green line is 2001 revenue, note how 2001 starts in-line with 2000 and then in April drops down (the beginning of the downturn). The orange line for 2002 starts in-line with 2001 and then in July begins to show some improvement (the beginning of the recovery). The purple line for 2003 shows recovery over 2002 every month with September and October showing significant progress towards recovering back to 2000 levels.
Conclusion
In our November update we forecasted 13% to 14% growth for the year. We now expect the growth to be in the 15% to 17% range.

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Business conditions July 2003 - What is the status of the semiconductor market as of July 2003. (07/27/2003)
Has the recovery stalled? - an updated examination of monthly sales data for the worldwide semiconductor industry shows that from mid 2002 to March of 2003 the industry had started out performing 2001, but now revenue has fallen back to 2001 levels. Has the recovery stalled? (06/03/2003)
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