This article is an update to an article originally published on November 25, 2002. Figure 1 has now been updated through March 2003.
An analysis of monthly worldwide sales data from the Semiconductor Industry Associations (SIA) World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) program shows a number of interesting features relevant to when the current downturn began and when it may have ended.
In figure 1, the blue line represents revenue by month for 2000. Notice how the line shows spikes every three months apparently correlated to the end of each quarter and also shows an overall upward trend in revenue.
In figure 1, the green line representing 2001 starts in-line with the beginning of 2000. This raises the question as to whether the upward trend in 2000 was seasonal or growth. If it was seasonal, 2001 started right in line, if it was growth, than Q4 2002 and Q1 2001 may already be down from 2000. As 2001 progresses it is clear that 2001 is down significantly from 2000 beginning in April (the start of the downturn).
In figure 1, the yellow-orange line is 2002. Note how 2002 starts out in-line with 2001 until July when a weak recovery above 2001 appears to begin and continues through the end of 2002.
In figure 1, the purple line in 2003. 2003 begins the year at a higher level than the early months of 2001, but not as high a level as 2000 and 2001. It currently appears that the market improved in mid 2002 but them leveled out.
Figure 1. Worldwide semiconductor revenue by month, 2000 - 2002.
Source: WSTS.
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Has the recovery begun? - an examination of monthly sales data for the worldwide semiconductor industry shows that 2002 is starting to out-perform 2001. Is this the start of a recovery? (11/25/2002)
