IC Knowledge - Recovery

Has the recovery begun?
An analysis of monthly worldwide sales data from the Semiconductor Industry Associations (SIA) World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) program shows a number of interesting features relevant to when the current downturn began and when it may have ended.

In figure 1, the blue line represents revenue by month for 2000. Notice how the line shows spikes every three months apparently correlated to the end of each quarter and also shows an overall upward trend in revenue.

In figure 1, the green line representing 2001 starts in-line with the beginning of 2000. This raises the question as to whether the upward trend in 2000 was seasonal or growth. If it was seasonal, 2001 started right in line, if it was growth, than Q4 2002 and Q1 2001 may already be down from 2000. As 2001 progresses it is clear that 2001 is down significantly from 2000 beginning in April (the start of the downturn).
In figure 1, the yellow-orange line is 2002. Note how 2002 starts out in-line with 2001 until July when a weak recovery above 2001 appears to begin. Is this the start of an upturn? Only time will tell.

Figure 1. Worldwide semiconductor revenue by month, 2000 - 2002.

Source: WSTS.