Industry Status as of January 2012 - November 2012 growth was -7.8% versus November of 2010. The year continues to weaken and we are now forecasting the year will end at less than 1% growth. We are expecting stronger growth in 2012 baring a worsening of the European debt crisis.
Industry Status as of December 2011 - October growth was -4.1% versus october of last year. April through August and October have all shown negative growth. We continue to expect 2011 to end with approximately 1% growth for the year overall. For 2012 we are expecting 5% to 10% growth as long as the European debt crisis doesn't get worse.
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Industry Status as of July 2011 - July 2011 came in at -2.6% growth month-over-month. Year-to-date Q1 has shown 8.97% growth, Q2 -0.64% growth and Q3 has started with -2.6% growth. Our current 5% to 7% growth forecast for the year is now clearly in jeopardy.
Industry Status as June 2011 - June 2011 was flat with June 2010 after two months of negative growth versus the same month in the previous year. We are now forecasting total 2011 growth to be in the 5% to 7% range.
Industry Status as of May 2011 - May showed negative growth of -3.2% versus May of 2010. Although our forecast model continues to show greater than 10% growth for the year we believe that 5% to 10% is more likely especially in light of year-to-date growth having fallen to 4.9%.
Industry Status as of April 2011 - April growth was essentially flat with April of 2010. The last three months have been weak with the year-to-date continually declining We are now revising our forecast to 5% to 10% growth versus our original greater than 10% growth for the year.
Industry Status as of May 2011 - March growth showed only a 0.9% increase versus March of 2010. After a weak February and now a weak March we are concerned that our greater than 10% growth forecast for the year may be too aggressive. It is possible this is just a temporary pause due to the Japan Tsunami but will bear careful watching.
Industry Status as of April 2011 - February growth was 11.9% versus February of 2010. However, the 7.9% drop in February revenue versus January was larger than normal and is cause for some concern. It is possible February is a one-time drop due to the Japan Tsunami or it could be the start of weaker than expected growth. If the next two months show continued weakness we may need to revise our forecast downward.
Industry Status as of March 2011 - January 2011 growth was 17.2% versus January of 2010. Based on "typical" monthly patterns January is consistent with 11.3% growth for all of 2011.
Industry Status as of February 2011 - December growth was 12.1% and the overall growth for the year was 31.7%. We are currently expecting 2011 growth ot be greater than 10%.
Conference Presentation (Updated Version) - A Simulation Study of 450mm Wafer Fabrication Costs - presented at ISMI Manufacturing Week, November 2011. This version has been updated to fix an calculation error that effected two charts.
Industry Status as of January 2011 - November 2010 growth has come in at 13.9% versus November of 2009. This is in-line with our expectations and we continue to expect the year to end at 31% to 33% overall growth versus 2009. Our preliminary look at 2011 is indication 10% to 15% growth for the year.
Industry Status as of December 2010 - October 2010 growth has come in at 9.2% versus October of 2009. This is in-line with our previous expectations that due to the relatively strong Q4 of 2009 that Q4 2010 growth would be more moderate than earlier in the year. We are now refining our previous greater than 30% growth forecast for all of 2010 to 31% to 33% for the year. Our first look at 2011 suggests greater than 10% growth for next year.
Industry Status as of November 2010 - Q1 growth was 58.8%, Q2 growth was 42.4% and Q3 was 26.1%. Against a relatively strong Q4 of 2009 we expect Q4 2010 to show approximately 10% growth and the overall growth for 2010 to be over 30%.
Industry Status as of October 2010 - August growth has come in at 30.8% and year-to-date growth is now 43.8%. We expect growth to continue to moderate as the year progresses and the overall year to end at just over 30% growth.
Industry Status as of September 2010 - July growth has come in at 28.1% and year-to-date growth is now at 46%. We expect growth to continue to moderate as the year progress and the overall year to end at just over 30% growth.
Industry Status as of July 2010 - May 2010 growth has come in at 45.4% and year to date growth is 52.3%.
We expect growth for the year to meet or exceed our 28% forecast.
Industry Status as of June 2010 - June 2010 growth has come in at 43.1% and year-to-date growth is 54.2%. We now believe our 28% growth forecast for the year may be conservative.
Industry Status as of May 2010 - March 2010 growth has come in at 53.9% and year-to-date growth is now at 58.3%. for the overall year we continue to expect growth to be around 28%.
Industry Status as of April 2010 - February 2010 have come in at 51% growth versus February of 2009 on top of 72% growth in January versus January of 2009. We are forecasting 2010 to show 27% overall revenue growth for the year!
Industry Status as of March 2010 - January 2010 began the year up 55.1% versus January of 2009. We are expecting 2010 to show greater than 20% growth versus 2009.
Industry Status as of January 2010 - November revenue of of $21.49 billion dollars (raw numbers not 3 month moving average) are up 26.7% from $16.96 billion dollars in November of 2008. This is the second consecutive growth month of 2009 and we are now forecasting the year to end down 10% overall versus 2009. We also expect at least +20% growth for 2010.
Industry Status as of December 2009 - October revenue of $22.08 billion dollars is up 14.3% from $19.31 billion dollars in October of 2008. The October revenue is the first month of positive growth in 2009 and stronger than we expected. We now expect to end 2009 with the overall year down 11% versus 2008 and 2010 to show strong growth of greater than 20%!
Industry Status as of November 2009 - September revenue of $24.03 billion dollars is down 8.6% from September 2009 revenue of $26.28 billion dollars. Q3 overall is down 10.2% from Q3 of 2009, a stronger showing than we had originally expected. We expect Q4 to show positive growth versus Q4 2008 and 2009 overall to come in at -12% versus our original forecast of -16%. We are also forecasting greater than 20% growth for 2010!
Industry Status as of October 2009 - August revenue of $19.02 billion dollars is down 13% versus August 2008 revenue of $21.07 billion dollars. With July and August coming in at -9.1% and -13% respectively, Q3 is coming in stronger than we were expecting. We now expect Q4 to show positive growth versus 2008 and the year overall to end at -12%.
Industry Status as of September 2009 - July revenue of $19.89 billion dollars is down only 4.3% from $20.79 billion dollars in July of 2008 (these are actual not moving average numbers). -4.3% growth for July is stronger than we expected and we are now revising our full year forecast for 2009 from -16% to -12% revenue growth.
Industry Status as of August 2009 - June revenue of $19.46 billion dollars (raw numbers not 3 month moving average) is down 23.7% from $25.52 billion dollars in June of 2008. This is fairly consistent with the rest of Q2 although a little softer than we were expecting. We expect the third and fourth quarter to strengthen from here and the year to end 16% down overall from 2008 as we previously forecast.
Industry Status as of July 2009 - May revenue of $16.15 billion dollars is down 21.3% from $20.53 billion dollars in July of 2008. The first two months of the second quarter are up form the 30% drop seen in the first quarter. We expect the third and fourth quarter to strengthen from here and the year to end 16% down overall from 2008 as we previously forecast.
Industry Status as of June 2009 - April revenue of $16.18 billion dollars (raw numbers not 3 month moving average) is down 16.5% from $19.38 billion dollars in April of 2008. This is a big improvement from last months 31.7% drop and may be the beginning of the improvement we expect to bring the overall growth rate for 2009 up to -19% by the end of the year.
Has Intel artificially inflated microprocessor prices
Industry Status as of May 2009 - March revenue of $17.38 billion dollars (actual not moving forecast) is down 31.2% from March of 2008. First quarter revenue is down 29.9% from 2008. We expect 2009 to improve from here and end down 19% overall versus 2008.
Industry Status as of April 2009 - February 2009 revenue of $13.40 billion dollars (actual not moving average) is down 27.3% versus February of 2008 following January being down 31.5%. We are now forecasting -19% growth for the year overall.
Solar Status March 2009 - Falling solar energy installation rates in 2009 are forecast to lead to low utilization rates and falling prices for solar cells.
Industry Status as of March 2009 - January 2009 revenue of $13.7 billion dollars (actual not moving average) has begun 2009 down 31.5% versus January of 2008.
Industry Status as of February 2009 - December ended 2008 with -32.1% growth bringing the year down to -1.9% growth. The big question now is how negative will 2009 be?
Solar Status January 2009 - Falling solar energy installation rates in 2009 are forecast to lead to low utilization rates and falling prices for solar cells.
Industry Status as of January 2009 - industry growth turned further negative in November at -22.7%. Year to-date growth has now fallen to 1.2%. If December comes in as negative as November the total year will show negative growth!
