IC Knowledge

Industry status as of January 2012
The SIA has released revenue numbers for November 2011 of $22.72 billion dollars (raw numbers not 3 month moving average) down 7.8% from $24.64 billion dollars in November of 2010.

The following table presents the growth for each month versus the same month in 2010 and the growth year-to-date (includes updated numbers for previous months).

Month	Month over month	Year to date
Jan	15.6%	15.6%
Feb	5.5%	10.7%
Mar	6.2%	9.0%
Apr	-0.3%	6.6%
May	-1.7%	4.9%
Jun	-0.6%	3.9%
Jul	-0.3%	3.3%
Aug	-2.7%	2.5%
Sep	1.0%	2.3%
Oct	-4.1%	1.7%
Nov	-7.8%	0.8%
Dec

After our first look at 2011 we forecasted greater than 10% growth for the year. January was consistent with 11.3% growth for the year based on "typical" monthly patterns and also consistent with our greater than 10% growth forecast. February through October have all come in weak with April through August and October and November all showing negative growth.

Figure 1 presents revenue by month from 2005 through 2011.

Figure 1. Monthly worldwide semiconductor revenue.

In figure 1, the purple, orange, blue, gray and green lines represent 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 revenue respectively.

For this analysis 2007 represents the base line year.
For 2008 the first quarter showed weak growth, the second quarter had good growth, the third quarter weakened again and then the fourth quarter turned sharply negative and brought the overall year to negative growth.
2009 - began with the first quarter down approximately 30% from 2008 and the second quarter down approximately 21%. The third quarter recovered to a 10% drop versus 2008 before the fourth quarter turned sharply positive with 32% growth and the year ended 9% down overall versus 2008.
2010 - began with a very strong first quarter with average growth of 58.8%. Q2 was also strong with average growth of 42.4%. Q3 showed good growth at 26.1%. Q4 of 2009 was relatively strong and and so Q4 of 2010 came in at 12.2% average growth.
2011 - our first look at 2011 led us to believe that growth will be greater than 10%. January was consistent with this, February through October have now come in weaker than expected with April through August and October all showing negative growth. Q1 has shown 8.97% growth, Q2 -0.83% growth (updated) and Q3 -0.59% growth. Q4 has now come in at -4.1% and -7.8% growth. In now looks like overall growth for the year will be less than 1%.

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Industry Status as of January 2012 - November 2012 growth was -7.8% versus November of 2010. The year continues to weaken and we are now forecasting the year will end at less than 1% growth. We are expecting stronger growth in 2012 baring a worsening of the European debt crisis.
Industry Status as of December 2011 - October growth was -4.1% versus october of last year. April through August and October have all shown negative growth. We continue to expect 2011 to end with approximately 1% growth for the year overall. For 2012 we are expecting 5% to 10% growth as long as the European debt crisis doesn't get worse.