IC Knowledge

Industry status as of April 2011
The SIA has released revenue numbers for May 2011 of $23.24 billion dollars (raw numbers not 3 month moving average) down 3.2% from $24.01 billion dollars in May of 2010. Both month over month and year-to-date growth has now been falling steadily since January.

The following table presents the growth for each month versus the same month in 2010 and the growth year-to-date (this table includes updated percentages versus last months post).

Month	Month over month	Year to date
Jan	15.6%	15.6%
Feb	5.5%	10.7%
Mar	6.8%	9.2%
Apr	0.4%	7.0%
May	-3.2%	4.9%
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

After our first look at 2011 we forecasted greater than 10% growth for the year. January is consistent with 11.3% growth for the year based on "typical" monthly patterns and also consistent with our greater than 10% growth forecast. February through May have all now come in weak with May showing negative growth.

Figure 1 presents revenue by month from 2005 through 2010.


Figure 1. Monthly worldwide semiconductor revenue.

In figure 1, the purple, orange, blue, gray and green lines represent 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 revenue respectively.

For this analysis 2007 represents the base line year.
For 2008 the first quarter showed weak growth, the second quarter had good growth, the third quarter weakened again and then the fourth quarter turned sharply negative and brought the overall year to negative growth.
2009 - began with the first quarter down approximately 30% from 2008 and the second quarter down approximately 21%. The third quarter recovered to a 10% drop versus 2008 before the fourth quarter turned sharply positive with 32% growth and the year ended 9% down overall versus 2008.
2010 - began with a very strong first quarter with average growth of 58.8%. Q2 was also strong with average growth of 42.4%. Q3 showed good growth at 26.1%. Q4 of 2009 was relatively strong and and so Q4 of 2010 came in at 12.2% average growth.
2011 - our first look at 2011 led us to believe that growth will be greater than 10%. January was consistent with this, February through May have now come in weaker than expected with May showing negative growth. SiCAS just released Q1 utilization statistics and running that through our forecast model the result still suggests >10% growth for the year but year-to-date experience is clearly not consistent with that. As we stated last month we now expect 5% to 10% growth for the year.

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Industry Status as of May 2011 - May showed negative growth of -3.2% versus May of 2010. Although our forecast model continues to show greater than 10% growth for the year we believe that 5% to 10% is more likely especially in light of year-to-date growth having fallen to 4.9%.
Industry Status as of April 2011 - April growth was essentially flat with April of 2010. The last three months have been weak with the year-to-date continually declining We are now revising our forecast to 5% to 10% growth versus our original greater than 10% growth for the year.
Industry Status as of May 2011 - March growth showed only a 0.9% increase versus March of 2010. After a weak February and now a weak March we are concerned that our greater than 10% growth forecast for the year may be too aggressive. It is possible this is just a temporary pause due to the Japan Tsunami but will bear careful watching.
Industry Status as of April 2011 - February growth was 11.9% versus February of 2010. However, the 7.9% drop in February revenue versus January was larger than normal and is cause for some concern. It is possible February is a one-time drop due to the Japan Tsunami or it could be the start of weaker than expected growth. If the next two months show continued weakness we may need to revise our forecast downward.
Industry Status as of March 2011 - January 2011 growth was 17.2% versus January of 2010. Based on "typical" monthly patterns January is consistent with 11.3% growth for all of 2011.
Industry Status as of February 2011 - December growth was 12.1% and the overall growth for the year was 31.7%. We are currently expecting 2011 growth to be greater than 10%.
Industry Status as of January 2011 - November 2010 growth has come in at 13.9% versus November of 2009. This is in-line with our expectations and we continue to expect the year to end at 31% to 33% overall growth versus 2009. Our preliminary look at 2011 is indication 10% to 15% growth for the year.
Industry Status as of December 2010 - October 2010 growth has come in at 9.2% versus October of 2009. This is in-line with our previous expectations that due to the relatively strong Q4 of 2009 that Q4 2010 growth would be more moderate than earlier in the year. We are now refining our previous greater than 30% growth forecast for all of 2010 to 31% to 33% for the year. Our first look at 2011 suggests greater than 10% growth for next year.
Industry Status as of November 2010 - Q1 growth was 58.8%, Q2 growth was 42.4% and Q3 was 26.1%. Against a relatively strong Q4 of 2009 we expect Q4 2010 to show approximately 10% growth and the overall growth for 2010 to be over 30%.
Industry Status as of October 2010 - August growth has come in at 30.8% and year-to-date growth is now 43.8%. We expect growth to continue to moderate as the year progresses and the overall year to end at just over 30% growth.
Industry Status as of September 2010 - July growth has come in at 28.1% and year-to-date growth is now at 46%. We expect growth to continue to moderate as the year progresses and the overall year to end at just over 30% growth.
Industry Status as of July 2010 - May 2010 growth has come in at 45.4% and year to date growth is 52.3%. We expect growth for the year to meet or exceed our 28% forecast.
Industry Status as of June 2010 - April 2010 growth has come in at 43.1% and year-to-date growth is 54.2%. We now believe our 28% growth forecast for the year may be conservative.
Industry Status as of May 2010 - March 2010 growth has come in at 53.9% and year-to-date growth is now at 58.3%. for the overall year we continue to expect growth to be around 28%.
Industry Status as of April 2010 - February 2010 have come in at 51% growth versus February of 2009 on top of 72% growth in January versus January of 2009. We are forecasting 2010 to show 27% overall revenue growth for the year!