IC Knowledge

Industry status as of July 2010
The SIA has released revenue numbers for May 2010 of $24.01 billion dollars (raw numbers not 3 month moving average) up 45.4% from $16.51 billion dollars in May of 2009.

The following table presents the growth for each month versus the same month in 2009 and the growth year-to-date.

Month	Month over month	Year to date
Jan	67.9%	67.9%
Feb	54.7%	61.2%
Mar	53.9%	58.3%
Apr	43.1%	54.2%
May	45.4%	52.3%

The year-to-date growth is coming down as the year progresses and Q4 of 2009 was much stronger than previous quarters so we expect relative growth to come down even more in Q4 of 2010. We believe our 28% growth forecast for the year will be met or exceeded at year-end.

Figure 1 presents revenue by month from 2005 through 2010.


Figure 1. Monthly worldwide semiconductor revenue.

In figure 1, the purple, orange, blue and gray lines represent 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 revenue respectively.

For this analysis 2007 represents the base line year.
For 2008 the first quarter showed weak growth, the second quarter had good growth, the third quarter weakened again and then the fourth quarter turned sharply negative and brought the overall year to negative growth.
2009 - began with the first quarter down approximately 30% from 2008 and the second quarter down approximately 21%. The third quarter recovered to a 10% drop versus 2008 before the fourth quarter turned sharply positive with 32% growth and the year ended 9% down overall versus 2008.
2010 - the first quarter has been very strong with all three months showing greater than fifty percent growth and year-to-date at 58.3%. Q2 has also started strong with 43.1% and 45.4% growth. We now believe our 28% growth for the year may be conservative.

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Industry Status as of July 2010 - May 2010 growth has come in at 45.4% and year to date growth is 52.3%. We expect growth for teh year to meet or exceed our 28% forecast.
Industry Status as of June 2010 - April 2010 growth has come in at 43.1% and year-to-date growth is 54.2%. We now believe our 28% growth forecast for the year may be conservative.
Industry Status as of May 2010 - March 2010 growth has come in at 53.9% and year-to-date growth is now at 58.3%. for the overall year we continue to expect growth to be around 28%.
Industry Status as of April 2010 - February 2010 have come in at 51% growth versus February of 2009 on top of 72% growth in January versus January of 2009. We are forecasting 2010 to show 27% overall revenue growth for the year!
Industry Status as of March 2010 - January 2010 began the year up 55.1% versus January of 2009. We are expecting 2010 to show greater than 20% growth versus 2009.
Industry Status as of January 2010 - November revenue of of $21.49 billion dollars (raw numbers not 3 month moving average) are up 26.7% from $16.96 billion dollars in November of 2008. This is the second consecutive growth month of 2009 and we are now forecasting the year to end down 10% overall versus 2009. We also expect at least +20% growth for 2010.