Semiconductor Industry Status June 2008

Industry status as of October 2009
The SIA has released revenue numbers for August 2009 of $19.02 billion dollars (raw numbers not 3 month moving average) is down 13.0% from $21.07 billion dollars in August of 2008. This continues the relatively strong Q3. Table 1 presents the month-over-month and year-to-date growth rates (note this table contain updated data versus last month):
Table 1 - Month-over-month and year-to-date growth rates.
Month Month-over-month Year-to-date Jan -31.2% -31.2% Feb -26.9% -29.1% Mar -31.7% -30.1% Apr -17.5% -27.1% May -21.3% -26.0% June -24.5% -25.7% July -9.1% -23.4% Aug -13.0% -22.1%

Figure 1 presents revenue by month from 2005 through 2009.


Figure 1. Monthly worldwide semiconductor revenue.

In figure 1, the brown, green, purple and orange lines represent 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 revenue respectively.

2006 began the year even with 2005, then showed steady growth until December that once again ran even with 2005. December was a disappointing month and brought down the year-to-date average growth to 8.5% versus the 9% growth we were expecting.
January 2007 started the year with strong growth but February showed negative growth, March moved positive and April showed strengthening growth, May and June both showed negative growth, July and August showed strong positive growth before Septembers disappointing 1.0% growth, Octobers rebound to 6.6% and then Novmbers -0.7% and finally the year closed out in December with 1.7% growth.
For 2008 the first quarter showed weak growth, the second quarter had good growth, the third quarter weakened again and then the fourth quarter turned sharply negative and brought the overall year to negative growth.
2009 has begun with the first quarter down approximately 30% from 2008 and the second quarter down approximately 21% We have been forecasting -16% growth for the year and expecting the second and third quarter to continue to improve. With Q3 starting at -9.1% versus last year and August coming in at -13.0% we are now expecting growth to go positive in Q4 and the year to end at -12% overall.

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Month	Month-over-month	Year-to-date
Jan	-31.2%	-31.2%
Feb	-26.9%	-29.1%
Mar	-31.7%	-30.1%
Apr	-17.5%	-27.1%
May	-21.3%	-26.0%
June	-24.5%	-25.7%
July	-9.1%	-23.4%
Aug	-13.0%	-22.1%