Semiconductor Industry Status June 2008

Industry status as of April 2009
The SIA has released revenue numbers for February 2009 of $13.40 billion dollars (raw numbers not 3 month moving average) down 27.3% from $18.43 billion dollars in February of 2008. This is the lowest February revenue since 2003. Table 1 presents the month-over-month and year-to-date growth rates:
Table 1 - Month-over-month and year-to-date growth rates.
Month Month-over-month Year-to-date Jan -31.2% -31.2% Feb -27.3% -29.3%

Figure 1 presents revenue by month from 2005 through 2009.


Figure 1. Monthly worldwide semiconductor revenue.

In figure 1, the brown, green, purple and orange lines represent 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 revenue respectively.

2006 began the year even with 2005, then showed steady growth until December that once again ran even with 2005. December was a disappointing month and brought down the year-to-date average growth to 8.5% versus the 9% growth we were expecting.
January 2007 started the year with strong growth but February showed negative growth, March moved positive and April showed strengthening growth, May and June both showed negative growth, July and August showed strong positive growth before Septembers disappointing 1.0% growth, Octobers rebound to 6.6% and then Novmbers -0.7% and finally the year closed out in December with 1.7% growth.
For 2008 the first quarter showed weak growth, the second quarter had good growth, the third quarter weakened again and then the fourth quarter turned sharply negative and brought the overall year to negative growth.
2009 has begun with January and February sharply down from 2008.

We have recently completed our detailed IC Foresct for 2009 and we are forecasting -19% revenue growth for the year. Clearly 2009 is going to be a very difficult year.

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Industry Satus as of April 2009 - February 2009 revenue of $13.40 billion dollars (actual not moving average) is down 27.3% versus Februaury of 2008 following Janaury being down 31.5%. We are now forecasting -19% growth for the year overall.
Industry Status as of March 2009 - January 2009 revenue of $13.7 billion dollars (actual not moving average) has begun 2009 down 31.5% versus January of 2008.
Industry Status as of February 2009 - December ended 2008 with -32.1% growth bringing the year down to -1.9% growth. The big question now is how negative will 2009 be?
Industry Status as of January 2009 - industry growth turned further negative in November at -22.7%. Year to-date growth has now fallen to 1.2%. If December comes in as negative as November the total year will show negative growth!
Industry Status as of December 2008 - industry growth turned sharply negative in October at -10.2%. We are expecting growth for the rest of the year to remain negative and overall growth for the year to come in between 0% and 1%.
Industry Status as of November 2008 - growth continues to be weak and we expect weak growth to continue for the balance of the year. We are now forecasting 4.5% growth for the year overall mainly due to a strong first half.
Industry Status as of October 2008 - growth continues to weaken. We now expect 2008 to show 4.5% overall growth for the year.
Industry Status as of September 2008 - a relatively weak July growth of 3.1% brought down the year-to-date growth for the first time this year. July calls into question the outlook for the balance of 2008.
Industry Status as of August 2008 - A strong 10.1% growth rate for June continues the strengthening trend for 2008. In spite of the well documented issues with the US economy we expect 2008 to be a strong year for semiconductors with growth approaching 10% for the year.
Industry Status as of July 2008 - May showed 9.3% growth bringing the average growth for the year up to 5.4%. We now expect the year to continue to strengthen and avearge growth for the year to come in at high single digits with 10% growth possible.
Industry Status as of June 2008 - Fab capacity has come into balance with demand faster than we orginally expected. 2008 started weak but has been consistently strengthening. We are now expecting not only positive growth for the year but possibly as much as 10% growth.
Industry Status as of May 2008 - March 2008 has come in at 10%, well above our expectations. Year-to-date growth has now moved from -0.2% to 3.8% growth improving the outlook for the rest of the year. We still remain concerned about excess capacity.
Industry Status as of April 2008 - 2008 has begun with two months of negative growth. Due to excess capacity coming on-line coupled with the weak US economy we believe 2008 will be a year of negative growth overall.

Month	Month-over-month	Year-to-date
Jan	-31.2%	-31.2%
Feb	-27.3%	-29.3%