Semiconductor Industry Status June 2008

Industry status as of December 2008
The SIA has released revenue numbers for October 2008 of $19.31 billion dollars (raw numbers not 3 month moving average) down 10.2% from $21.5 billion dollars in October of 2007. -10.2% growth for October brings the year-to-date growth down to 3.7% . Table 1 presents month-over-month and year-to-date growth by month. Note this table includes updated data from last month.
Table 1 - 2008 Growth Rates Month Month-over-month Year-to-date Jan -0.2% -0.2% Feb 3.9% 1.8% Mar 7.7% 4.1% Apr 5.5% 4.4% May 9.8% 5.5% Jun 12.9% 6.9% Jul 3.4% 6.4% Aug 2.2% 5.8% Sep 1.9% 5.3% Oct -10.2% 3.7%

Figure 1 presents revenue by month from 2005 through 2008.


Figure 1. Monthly worldwide semiconductor revenue.

In figure 1, the brown, green, purple and orange lines represent 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 revenue respectively.

2006 began the year even with 2005, then showed steady growth until December that once again ran even with 2005. December was a disappointing month and brought down the year-to-date average growth to 8.5% versus the 9% growth we were expecting.
January 2007 started the year with strong growth but February showed negative growth, March moved positive and April showed strengthening growth, May and June both showed negative growth, July and August showed strong positive growth before Septembers disappointing 1.0% growth, Octobers rebound to 6.6% and then Novmbers -0.7% and finally the year closed out in December with 1.7% growth.
For 2008 January started the year slightly down and then turned positive with strengthening growth until June when growth peaked at 12.9%. Since June growth has been weakening ending with Octobers -10.2% growth. The worldwide economic weakness in general and falling memory prices in particular are hitting the industry hard. We are now forced to further revise our forecast for the year downward to between 0 and 1% overall growth.

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Industry Status as of December 2008 - industry growth turned sharply negative in October at -10.2%. We are expecting growth for the rest of the year to remain negative and overall growth for the year to come in between 0% and 1%.
Industry Status as of November 2008 - growth continues to be weak and we expect weak growth to continue for the balance of the year. We are now forecasting 4.5% growth for the year overall mainly due to a strong first half.
Industry Status as of October 2008 - growth continues to weaken. We now expect 2008 to show 4.5% overall growth for the year.
Industry Status as of September 2008 - a relatively weak July growth of 3.1% brought down the year-to-date growth for the first time this year. July calls into question the outlook for the balance of 2008.
Industry Status as of August 2008 - A strong 10.1% growth rate for June continues the strengthening trend for 2008. In spite of the well documented issues with the US economy we expect 2008 to be a strong year for semiconductors with growth approaching 10% for the year.
Industry Status as of July 2008 - May showed 9.3% growth bringing the average growth for the year up to 5.4%. We now expect the year to continue to strengthen and avearge growth for the year to come in at high single digits with 10% growth possible.
Industry Status as of June 2008 - Fab capacity has come into balance with demand faster than we orginally expected. 2008 started weak but has been consistently strengthening. We are now expecting not only positive growth for the year but possibly as much as 10% growth.
Industry Status as of May 2008 - March 2008 has come in at 10%, well above our expectations. Year-to-date growth has now moved from -0.2% to 3.8% growth improving the outlook for the rest of the year. We still remain concerned about excess capacity.
Industry Status as of April 2008 - 2008 has begun with two months of negative growth. Due to excess capacity coming on-line coupled with the weak US economy we believe 2008 will be a year of negative growth overall.

Month	Month-over-month	Year-to-date
Jan	-0.2%	-0.2%
Feb	3.9%	1.8%
Mar	7.7%	4.1%
Apr	5.5%	4.4%
May	9.8%	5.5%
Jun	12.9%	6.9%
Jul	3.4%	6.4%
Aug	2.2%	5.8%
Sep	1.9%	5.3%
Oct	-10.2%	3.7%