Semiconductor Industry Status April 2008

Industry status as of April 2008
The SIA has released revenue numbers for February 2008 of $17.85 billion dollars (raw numbers not 3 month moving average) down from $17.90 billion dollars in February of 2007. The February numbers represent -0.3% growth month over month and -0.2% growth year-to-date. Tabel 1 presents month-over-month and year-to-date growth by month.
Table 1 - 2008 Growth Rates Month Month-over-month Year-to-date Jan -0.2% -0.2% Feb -0.3% -0.2%

Figure 1 presents revenue by month from 2005 through 2008.


Figure 1. Monthly worldwide semiconductor revenue.

In figure 1, the brown, green, purple and orange lines represent 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 revenue respectively.

2006 began the year even with 2005, then showed steady growth until December that once again ran even with 2005. December was a disappointing month and brought down the year-to-date average growth to 8.5% versus the 9% growth we were expecting.
January 2007 started the year with strong growth but February showed negative growth, March moved positive and April showed strengthening growth, May and June both showed negative growth, July and August showed strong positive growth before Septembers disappointing 1.0% growth, Octobers rebound to 6.6% and then Novmbers -0.7% and finally the year closed out in December with 1.7% growth.
For 2008 we are expecting excess capacity to drive negative revenue growth. January and February have begun the year slightly down.

2007 ended with the US economy slowing sharply a clearly negative sign while the leading foundries are reporting high utilization, a positive sign.

For 2008 we are concerned that too much new capacity is coming on-line. We believe that negative growth is likely next year althought investment in new capacity has been moderating recently giving us some hope that we could see a 1% or 2% growth year.

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Industry Status as of April 2008 - 2008 has begun with two months of negative growth. Due to excess capacity coming on-line coupled with the weak US economy we believe 2008 will be a year of negative growth overall.
Industry Status as of March 2008 - the SIA numbers for January show -0.2% growth. We remain concerned that too much capacity coming on-line in 2008 is going to lead to negative growth for the year.
Industry Status as of February 2008 - the SIA numbers for December show 1.7% growth for the month and 2.7% growth for the year. 2007 was a year where growth swung from positive to negative month-to-month. Based on currently planned new capacity for 2008 we believe there is a strong risk of over-capacity leading to negative growth for the year.
Industry Status as of January 2008 - the SIA numbers for Novmeber show -0.7% growth versus the same month a year earlier. 2007 has been a year of growth swinging positive and then negative month-to-month. We now expect that too much capacity coming on-line in 2008 will likely lead to negative growth for the year.
Industry Status as of December 2007 - the SIA numbers for October show resonable growth at 6.6% month over month. We expect Q4 to show moderate growth and growth for the year to end at around 4%. We remain concerned that too much capacity coming on-line could lead to a down-turn in 2008.
Industry Status as of November 2007 - the SIA numbers for September show very weak growth. This year continues to occilate between months with little of even negative growth and months with high single digit growth.
Industry Status as of October 2007 - the SIA revenue numbers for August showed a second month of strong growth at 9% versus the same month last year. Year-to-date growth has now improved to 3.8% and the second half is looking like it will be farily strong.
Industry Status as of September 2007 - the SIA revenue numbers for July have again moved positive at 9.3% growth versus the same month last year. July's numbers coupled with better utilization at the leading foundries are a positive signs for the second half of 2007.
Industry Status as of August 2007 - the SIA revenue numbers for June showed negative growth for the second consecutive month. There are some positive signs for the second half of 2007 with the major foundries reporting improving utilization. We currently expect 2007 to show positive growth overall but only in the low to mid single digits.
Industry Status as of July 2007 - the SIA revenue numbers for May 2007 represent -0.6% growth versus the same month last year. We continue to be concerned that excess capacity coming on-line is going to hold growth to the low single digits for 2007.
Industry Status as of June 2007 - The SIA has released revenue numbers for April 2007 of $18.01 billion dollars (raw numbers not 3 month moving average). The April numbers are up from $17.11 billion dollars in April of 2006 and represents 5.3% growth month-over-month up from 2.7% in march. This is a positive sign in the ASP versus volume trade-off we expect to determine the growth rate for 2007.
Industry Status as of May 2007 - March's growth turned negative at -0.5% versus March of 2006. We expect 2007 to be a balancing act between increasing volumes and decreasing ASPs due to new capacity coming on-line. We believe the risk is high that 2007 will show only low single digit percentage growth for the year.
Industry Status as of April 2007 - February's growth was a very weak 0.2% down from January's 12.6%. We expect that a balancing act will go on all year between ASP and volume with 7% revenue growth expected. We We are concerned that 2008 will be a down year if capacity growth continues.
Industry Status as of March 2007 - January's growth of 12.6% is a surprisingly strong start to 2007 after December's weak 2.1% growth. The January growth is a good first sign for 2007.
Industry Status as of February 2007 - December growth was a weak 2.1% bringing the year over year growth for all of 2006 down to 8.5%. The weak December casts a shadow over the first quarter of 2007.
Industry Status as of January 2007 - Novembers growth came it at a very strong 14.2% versus November of 2005. We expect 2006 to end at just over 9% growth for the year and 2007 to begin with normal seasonal weakness and show 13% growth for the year.

Month	Month-over-month	Year-to-date
Jan	-0.2%	-0.2%
Feb	-0.3%	-0.2%