Semiconductor Industry Status April 2007

Industry status as of April 2007
The SIA has released revenue numbers for February 2007 of $18.36 billion dollars (raw numbers not 3 month moving average). The February numbers are up slightly from $18.33 billion dollars in February of 2006 and represents a weak 0.2% growth month-over-month down from February's strong 12.6% and December's weak 2.1% . Figure 1 illustrates the monthly revenue for the worldwide semiconductor market for 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007.


Figure 1. Monthly worldwide semiconductor revenue.

In figure 1, the grey, brown, green and purple lines represent 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 revenue respectively. Notice how 2005 ran ahead of 2004 until May, took a three month pause and then began growing again. 2006 began the year even with 2005, then showed steady growth until December that once again ran even with 2005. December was a disappointing month and brought down the year-to-date average growth to 8.5% versus the 9% growth we were expecting. January 2007 has started the year with strong growth again but now February has fallen back almost to the 2006 levels.

The SIA has reported that volumes are up this quarter and ASPs are down. This is consistent with our forecast model that is predicting lower utilization rates for this year and a balancing act all year between declining ASP driven by utilization and increasing volumes. The fundamental problem in our opinion is too much capacity coming on-line. How the ASP - volume balance comes out will likely determine whether 2007 is an up or a down year. Currently we expect ASPs to decline all year but sufficient volume to grow revenue for the year by approximately 7%. We are concerned that if the capacity build continues that 2008 will be a down year.

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Industry Status as of April 2007 - February's growth was a very weak 0.2% down from January's 12.6%. We expect that a balancing act will go on all year between ASP and volume with 7% revenue growth expected. We are concerned that 2008 will be a down year if capacity growth continues.
Industry Status as of March 2007 - January's growth of 12.6% is a surprisingly strong start to 2007 after December's weak 2.1% growth. The January growth is a good first sign for 2007.
Industry Status as of February 2007 - December growth was a weak 2.1% bringing the year over year growth for all of 2006 down to 8.5%. The weak December casts a shadow over the first quarter of 2007.
Industry Status as of January 2007 - Novembers growth came it at a very strong 14.2% versus November of 2005. We expect 2006 to end at just over 9% growth for the year and 2007 to begin with normal seasonal weakness and show 13% growth for the year.
We have updated our IC revenue history and forecast to include actual data through Q3-2006 and forecasts out to Q4-2008. We expect 2006 to end at 9.8% growth, 2007 to see 13% growth and 2008 a mild downturn.
Industry Status as of December 2006 - Octobers growth came in at a strong 11.0% versus October of 2005. We expect 2006 to end with 9% year-over-year growth.
Industry Status as of November 2006 - Septembers growth strengthened over Augusts growth coming in at 9.1% versus 7.7% for August. We are now forecasting growth for the year to end in the 9% to 11% range.
Industry Status as of October 2006 - August growth moderated from the last three months coming in at 7.7% versus August 2005. We continue to expect 2006 to end with 10% to 12% growth for the full year.
Industry Status as of September 2006 - July showed strong growth up 12.0% versus July 2005 and year-to-date growth is now 8.3%. We expect growth for the year to end at 10% to 12%.
Industry Status as of August 2006 - June showed good growth up 11.8% over June 2005 and year-to-date growth is now at 7.8% versus the same period last year. Year-to-date performance and reports of excess inventory in the channel have led us to lower our 2006 forecast to 10% from 19% at the beginning of the year.
Industry Status as of July 2006 - May once again showed strong growth versus 2005 reenforcing our belief that 2006 will show double digit growth over 2005.
Industry Status as of June 2006 - April's growth moderated after strong growth in March. It isn't clear yet whether this represents the effects of the inventory builds and high energy cost effects the SIA warned about for March.
Industry Status as of May 2006 - March revenue showed strong growth of 12.2% over February of a year ago. The strong growth is tempered by concerns of inventory building and the effect of high energy prices.
Industry Status as of April 2006 - February revenue is showing increased growth over January's weaker growth.
History and Forecast March 2006 - a quarterly history and forecast for ICs through the end of 2006 including dollars, units, wafer starts and utilization. We are forecasting 19% growth for 2006.
Industry Status as of March 2006 - January revenue is only up fractionally versus January of a year ago
Industry Status as of February 2006 - December continued Novembers strong revenue growth versus the same month in 2004. 2005 has now ended with 7.1% growth versus 2004. We currently expect 2006 to be an up year with greater than 10% growth probable.