Semiconductor Industry Status March 2007

Industry status as of March 2007
The SIA has released revenue numbers for January 2007 of $19.6 billion dollars (raw numbers not 3 month moving average). The January numbers are up from $17.42 billion dollars in January of 2006 and represents a surprisingly strong 12.6% growth month over month. up from December's weak 2.1% .

Figure 1 illustrates the monthly revenue for the worldwide semiconductor market for 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007.


Figure 1. Monthly worldwide semiconductor revenue.

In figure 1, the grey, brown and green lines represent 2004, 2005 and 2006 revenue respectively Notice how 2005 ran ahead of 2004 until May, took a three month pause and then began growing again. 2006 began the year even with 2005, then showed steady growth until December that once again ran even with 2005. December was a disappointing month and brought down the year-to-date average growth to 8.5% versus the 9% growth we were expecting. January 2007 has started the year with strong growth again.

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Industry Status as of March 2007 - January's growth of 12.6% is a surprisingly strong start to 2007 after December's weak 2.1% growth. The January growth is a good first sign for 2007.
Industry Status as of February 2007 - December growth was a weak 2.1% bringing the year over year growth for all of 2006 down to 8.5%. The weak December casts a shadow over the first quarter of 2007.
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Industry Status as of November 2006 - Septembers growth strengthened over Augusts growth coming in at 9.1% versus 7.7% for August. We are now forecasting growth for the year to end in the 9% to 11% range.
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Industry Status as of August 2006 - June showed good growth up 11.8% over June 2005 and year-to-date growth is now at 7.8% versus the same period last year. Year-to-date performance and reports of excess inventory in the channel have led us to lower our 2006 forecast to 10% from 19% at the beginning of the year.
Industry Status as of July 2006 - May once again showed strong growth versus 2005 reenforcing our belief that 2006 will show double digit growth over 2005.
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Industry Status as of May 2006 - March revenue showed strong growth of 12.2% over February of a year ago. The strong growth is tempered by concerns of inventory building and the effect of high energy prices.
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