Seconductor Industry Status December 2004

Industry status as of December 2004
Friday the SIA released revenue numbers for October 2004 of $17.64 billion dollars (raw numbers not 3 month moving average). The October numbers are up from $15.26 billion dollars in October of 2003 and represents a 15.6% growth rate over October of 2003 and a 31.1% year-to-date growth rate over the same 10 months in 2003. After August represented the first month in 8 months that failed to exceed the same month in the year 2000 peak, September and October have once again moved back ahead of the same months in 2000! The growth rate year-to-date has dropped from 36.4% in June to 36.0% in July and 34.9% in August, 33.1% in September and 31.1 in October. The dropping growth rate in conjunction with dropping utilization has turned us bearish on the balance of 2004 and early 2005.

Figure 1 illustrates the monthly revenue for the worldwide semiconductor market for 2000 through 2004.


Figure 1. Monthly worldwide semiconductor revenue.

In figure 1 the blue line represents 2000, the peak semiconductor revenue year. The green line is 2001 revenue, note how 2001 starts in-line with 2000 and then in April drops down (the beginning of the downturn). The orange line for 2002 starts in-line with 2001 and then in July begins to show some improvement (the beginning of the recovery). The purple line for 2003 shows recovery over 2002 every month with the fourth quarter showing significant progress towards recovering back to 2000 levels. Finally, the grey squares are 2004 revenue, with January through July showing progressively moderating growth over the year 2000 peak, August dipping under the year 2000 level and September now showing some recovery.

In 2003 the worldwide semiconductor market totaled $166.4 billion dollars made up of $140 billion dollars in ICs and $26.4 billion dollars in discretes. For 2004 our most recent forecast was for IC growth in the mid thirties with lower discrete growth pulling the overall market number down slightly. With the weak results for August, September and October we now believe that the year will end around 28% for growth.

For 2005 we are now concerned that a downturn may be shaping up for Q1. Q3-2004 utilization rates have turned down from 95.4% in Q2 to 92.7% in Q3. The ramp-up in 300mm has resulted in a decrease in utilization to less than 90% and foundry utilization has also turned down to 97.7% from 99.4% in Q2. In 2000, utilization turned down in Q4 and a full blown downturn began in Q2 of the following year.

Related articles

Industry Status as of December 2004 - Worldwide growth for October continues to be weak and falling utilization rates now have us concerned that Q1-2005 may be the start of a downturn.
Industry Status as of November 2004 - Worldwide growth for September showed some improvement but the second half outlook is still weak. We are also now concerned about a possible 2005 downturn.
Industry status as of October 2004 - Worldwide revenue growth continues to soften further clouding the outlook for the second half.
Industry status as of September 2004 - Worldwide revenue continue to grow with July up 33% versus July 2003 and year-to-date revenue up 35.9%. This is however, moderate growth compared to earlier in the year. (09/02/2004)
Industry status as of August 2004 - Worldwide revenue continue to grow with June up 41% versus June 2003 and year-to-date revenue up 36.4%. (08/02/2004)
Industry status as of July 2004 - Worldwide revenue continues to show strong growth with year-to-date revenue growth of 35.4%. (07/02/2004)
Industry status as of June 2004 - Worldwide revenue continues to show strong growth. (06/01/2004)
Industry status as of May 2004. Worldwide revenue for March shows more strong growth. (05/04/2004)
Revenue trends - the worldwide semiconductor industry revenue and growth rate by year through 200,3 with 2004 through 2008 estimates. Updated (4/20/2004)
Industry status as of April 2004. Worldwide revenue for February shows strong growth over Januaries record pace. (04/02/2004)
Industry status as of March 2004. Worldwide revenue numbers for January are the best on record. (03/01/2004)
Industry status as of February 2004. (02/04/2004)
November continues to show strength in the recovery. (01/05/2004)
October numbers show more strength - new SIA data shows a recovery continuing to pick up speed. (12/03/2003)
The recovery is picking up steam - new SIA data indicates a strengthening recovery. (11/03/2003)
Recovery Status September 2003 - is the recovery picking up speed? (09/29/2003)
Recovery Status August 2003 - the first six months of 2003 have shown growth over 2002, but as each additional month of data is added the year-to-date growth rate is falling. (08/28/2003)
Business conditions July 2003 - What is the status of the semiconductor market as of July 2003. (07/27/2003)
Has the recovery stalled? - an updated examination of monthly sales data for the worldwide semiconductor industry shows that from mid 2002 to March of 2003 the industry had started out performing 2001, but now revenue has fallen back to 2001 levels. Has the recovery stalled? (06/03/2003)
Has the recovery begun? - an updated examination of monthly sales data for the worldwide semiconductor industry shows that since mid 2002 the industry is out performing 2001. Is this a recovery? (05/18/2003)