- Industry status as of November 2004
- Today the SIA released revenue numbers for September 2004 of $21.35 billion dollars (raw umbers not 3 month moving average). The September numbers are up from $17.40 billion dollars in September of 2003 and represents a 22.7% growth rate over September of 2003 and a 33.1% year-to-date growth rate over the same 9 months in 2003. After August represented the first month in 8 months that failed to exceed the same month in the year 2000 peak, September has once again moved back ahead of the September 2000! The growth rate year-to-date has dropped from 36.4% in June to 36.0% in July and 34.9% in August and now 33.1% in September. The dropping growth rate in conjunction with some forecasts of dropping utilization rates has turned us bearish for the balance of 2004. In fact some forecasts that utilization will drop significantly in Q4 now have us concerned that a downturn could be developing.
- Figure 1 illustrates the monthly revenue for the worldwide semiconductor market for 2000 through 2004.
- Today the SIA released revenue numbers for September 2004 of $21.35 billion dollars (raw umbers not 3 month moving average). The September numbers are up from $17.40 billion dollars in September of 2003 and represents a 22.7% growth rate over September of 2003 and a 33.1% year-to-date growth rate over the same 9 months in 2003. After August represented the first month in 8 months that failed to exceed the same month in the year 2000 peak, September has once again moved back ahead of the September 2000! The growth rate year-to-date has dropped from 36.4% in June to 36.0% in July and 34.9% in August and now 33.1% in September. The dropping growth rate in conjunction with some forecasts of dropping utilization rates has turned us bearish for the balance of 2004. In fact some forecasts that utilization will drop significantly in Q4 now have us concerned that a downturn could be developing.
- Figure 1. Monthly worldwide semiconductor revenue.
In figure 1 the blue line represents 2000, the peak semiconductor revenue year. The green line is 2001 revenue, note how 2001 starts in-line with 2000 and then in April drops down (the beginning of the downturn). The orange line for 2002 starts in-line with 2001 and then in July begins to show some improvement (the beginning of the recovery). The purple line for 2003 shows recovery over 2002 every month with the fourth quarter showing significant progress towards recovering back to 2000 levels. Finally, the grey squares are 2004 revenue, with January through July showing progressively moderating growth over the year 2000 peak, August dipping under the year 2000 level and September now showing some recovery.
In 2003 the worldwide semiconductor market totaled $166.4 billion dollars made up of $140 billion dollars in ICs and $26.4 billion dollars in discretes. For 2004 our most recent forecast was for IC growth in the mid thirties with lower discrete growth pulling the overall market number down slightly. With the weak results for August and September we now believe that mid thirties may be too aggressive with the outlook is now shifting to the low thirties or even high twenties. We are also watching closely the possibility of a 2005 downturn.
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