Seconductor Industry Status October 2005

Industry status as of August 2005
The SIA has released revenue numbers for August 2005 of $18.66 billion dollars (raw numbers not 3 month moving average). The August numbers are up from $17.41 billion dollars in August of 2004 and represents a 7.2% growth month over month.

Year-to-date the growth over the same months from 2004 had been continuously moderating with each successive month, see table, but now with Augusts numbers the growth rate is finally moving back up. We have been predicting stronger growth in the second half of 2005. It is too early to tell if this is the beginning of that trend but it is certainly a positive sign in that direction.
Month YTD growth Jan 25.4% Feb 17.4% Mar 13.2% Apr 11.3% May 9.1% June 6.8% July 6.1% Aug 6.2%

Figure 1 illustrates the monthly revenue for the worldwide semiconductor market for 2000 through July 2005.


Figure 1. Monthly worldwide semiconductor revenue.

In figure 1, the blue line represents 2000, the prior peak semiconductor revenue year. The green line is 2001 revenue, note how 2001 starts in-line with 2000 and then in April drops down (the beginning of the downturn). The orange line for 2002 starts in-line with 2001 and then in July begins to show some improvement (the beginning of the recovery). The purple line for 2003 shows recovery over 2002 every month with the fourth quarter showing significant progress towards recovering back to 2000 levels. The grey represent 2004 revenue, with January through July showing progressively moderating growth over the year 2000 peak, August dipping under the year 2000 level and September through November showing some recovery before December drops back below the year 2000 levels. The brown circles represent 2005 revenue. Notice how all the months in Q1 and Q2 up until June have been above the same months in any previous Q1 or Q2 but June dipped below 2004 levels and now July has moved back slightly above 2004 levels and August is also up.

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Industry Status as of October 2005 - August revenue growth has made a strong recovery from the weak/negative growth of the last few months. We have been predicting stronger revenue growth in the second half and August certainly represents a positive step in that direction.
Industry Status as of September 2005 - July revenue growth has recovered to slightly positive growth versus Junes negative growth. We expect revenue growth to strengthen in the second half but we are concerned about the effect of high energy prices.
Industry Status as of August 2005 - June worldwide revenue numbers are down from June 2004 representing the first month of negative growth this year. We currently expect the second half to strengthen but our confidence in our forecast is not strong.
Industry Status as of July 2005 - May worldwide revenue is showing moderating growth compared to prior months in 2005 rasing the specter of a weaker than expected second half.
Industry Status as of June 2005 - Aprils worldwide revenue continues to show growth although somewhat slower than at the start of Q1. Recent announcements by several global leaders in semiconductors have us bullish for the balance of Q2.
History and Forecast May 2005 - quarterly revenue, units, wafer starts and utilization for the IC industry.
Industry Status as of May 2005 - Worldwide revenue for March continued to show growth that began in January. We are now working on an upward revision to our 2005 forecast.
Industry Status as of April 2005 - Worldwide revenue for February continued the strong growth that began in January.
Industry Status as of March 2005 - Worldwide revenue for January 2005 was up sharply versus any January previously recorded. January revenue was well above where we expected it to be and if this trend continues we will have to revise our 2005 forecast sharply upward.
Industry Status as of February 2005 - Worldwide growth for December is once again weakening and we now believe that 2005 will show negative IC revenue growth.
History and Forecast Jan 2005 - quarterly revenue, units, wafer starts and utilization for the IC industry. (01/19/2005) Updated (01/24/2005)
Industry Status as of January 2005 - Worldwide growth for November is strengthening and we now believe that although 2004 will end weak and 2005 start weak, IC revenue growth for 2005 will be 18%.
Industry Status as of December 2004 - Worldwide growth for October continues to be weak and falling utilization rates now have us concerned that Q1-2005 may be the start of a downturn.
Industry Status as of November 2004 - Worldwide growth for September showed some improvement but the second half outlook is still weak. We are also now concerned about a possible 2005 downturn.
Industry status as of October 2004 - Worldwide revenue growth continues to soften further clouding the outlook for the second half.
Industry status as of September 2004 - Worldwide revenue continue to grow with July up 33% versus July 2003 and year-to-date revenue up 35.9%. This is however, moderate growth compared to earlier in the year. (09/02/2004)
Industry status as of August 2004 - Worldwide revenue continue to grow with June up 41% versus June 2003 and year-to-date revenue up 36.4%. (08/02/2004)
Industry status as of July 2004 - Worldwide revenue continues to show strong growth with year-to-date revenue growth of 35.4%. (07/02/2004)
Industry status as of June 2004 - Worldwide revenue continues to show strong growth. (06/01/2004)
Industry status as of May 2004. Worldwide revenue for March shows more strong growth. (05/04/2004)
Revenue trends - the worldwide semiconductor industry revenue and growth rate by year through 200,3 with 2004 through 2008 estimates. Updated (4/20/2004)
Industry status as of April 2004. Worldwide revenue for February shows strong growth over Januaries record pace. (04/02/2004)
Industry status as of March 2004. Worldwide revenue numbers for January are the best on record. (03/01/2004)
Industry status as of February 2004. (02/04/2004)

Month	YTD growth
Jan	25.4%
Feb	17.4%
Mar	13.2%
Apr	11.3%
May	9.1%
June	6.8%
July	6.1%
Aug	6.2%