Seconductor Industry Status May 2006

Industry status as of May 2006
The SIA has released revenue numbers for March 2006 of $23.03 billion dollars (raw numbers not 3 month moving average). The March numbers are up from $20.54 billion dollars in March of 2005 and represents a 12.2% growth month over month and year to-date growth has now increased to 6.3% for March versus 2.9% for February and 0.5% for January.

Figure 1 illustrates the monthly revenue for the worldwide semiconductor market for 2004, 2005 and 2006.

Figure 1. Monthly worldwide semiconductor revenue.

In figure 1, the grey line represents 2004 revenue. The brown line represents 2005 revenue. Notice how all the months in Q1 and Q2 up until June have been above the same months in any previous Q1 or Q2 but June dipped below 2004 levels, July moved back slightly above 2004 levels, August and September are above 2004 levels with September showing strong growth , October showing moderating growth and November and December once again showing strong growth. The green squares represent 2006, note how January falls almost directly on top of January 2005, February shows some growth and March shows strong growth.

Although March ends Q1 on a very strong note we should caution that in the SIA announcement it was noted that some inventory building may be taking place and that high energy prices threaten consumer spending.

We have recently completed a detailed forecast of 2006 that can be found here: History and Forecast March 2006

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Industry Status as of May 2006 - March revenue showed strong growth of 12.2% over February of a year ago. The strong growth is tempered by concerns of inventory building and the effect of high energy prices.
Industry Status as of April 2006 - February revenue is showing increased growth over January's weaker growth.
History and Forecast March 2006 - a quarterly history and forecast for ICs through the end of 2006 including dollars, units, wafer starts and utilization. We are forecasting 19% growth for 2006.
Industry Status as of March 2006 - January revenue is only up fractionally versus January of a year ago
Industry Status as of February 2006 - December continued Novembers strong revenue growth versus the same month in 2004. 2005 has now ended with 7.1% growth versus 2004. We currently expect 2006 to be an up year with greater than 10% growth probable.
Industry Status as of January 2006 - November revenue growth once again strengthened after a weak October. We currently expect 2006 to be an up year with greater than 10% growth probable.
Industry Status as of December 2005 - October revenue growth is weaker than Septembers strong growth.
Industry Status as of November 2005 - September revenue growth continues to show a strong recovery from the weak/negative growth of the last few months. We have been predicting stronger revenue growth in the second half of 2005 and with August and now September moving in that direction we are increasingly confident in a strong second half.
Industry Status as of October 2005 - August revenue growth has made a strong recovery from the weak/negative growth of the last few months. We have been predicting stronger revenue growth in the second half and August certainly represents a positive step in that direction.
Industry Status as of September 2005 - July revenue growth has recovered to slightly positive growth versus Junes negative growth. We expect revenue growth to strengthen in the second half but we are concerned about the effect of high energy prices.
Industry Status as of August 2005 - June worldwide revenue numbers are down from June 2004 representing the first month of negative growth this year. We currently expect the second half to strengthen but our confidence in our forecast is not strong.
Industry Status as of July 2005 - May worldwide revenue is showing moderating growth compared to prior months in 2005 rasing the specter of a weaker than expected second half.
Industry Status as of June 2005 - Aprils worldwide revenue continues to show growth although somewhat slower than at the start of Q1. Recent announcements by several global leaders in semiconductors have us bullish for the balance of Q2.
History and Forecast May 2005 - quarterly revenue, units, wafer starts and utilization for the IC industry.
Industry Status as of May 2005 - Worldwide revenue for March continued to show growth that began in January. We are now working on an upward revision to our 2005 forecast.
Industry Status as of April 2005 - Worldwide revenue for February continued the strong growth that began in January.
Industry Status as of March 2005 - Worldwide revenue for January 2005 was up sharply versus any January previously recorded. January revenue was well above where we expected it to be and if this trend continues we will have to revise our 2005 forecast sharply upward.
Industry Status as of February 2005 - Worldwide growth for December is once again weakening and we now believe that 2005 will show negative IC revenue growth.
History and Forecast Jan 2005 - quarterly revenue, units, wafer starts and utilization for the IC industry. (01/19/2005) Updated (01/24/2005)
Industry Status as of January 2005 - Worldwide growth for November is strengthening and we now believe that although 2004 will end weak and 2005 start weak, IC revenue growth for 2005 will be 18%.
Industry Status as of December 2004 - Worldwide growth for October continues to be weak and falling utilization rates now have us concerned that Q1-2005 may be the start of a downturn.
Industry Status as of November 2004 - Worldwide growth for September showed some improvement but the second half outlook is still weak. We are also now concerned about a possible 2005 downturn.
Industry status as of October 2004 - Worldwide revenue growth continues to soften further clouding the outlook for the second half.
Industry status as of September 2004 - Worldwide revenue continue to grow with July up 33% versus July 2003 and year-to-date revenue up 35.9%. This is however, moderate growth compared to earlier in the year. (09/02/2004)
Industry status as of August 2004 - Worldwide revenue continue to grow with June up 41% versus June 2003 and year-to-date revenue up 36.4%. (08/02/2004)
Industry status as of July 2004 - Worldwide revenue continues to show strong growth with year-to-date revenue growth of 35.4%. (07/02/2004)
Industry status as of June 2004 - Worldwide revenue continues to show strong growth. (06/01/2004)
Industry status as of May 2004. Worldwide revenue for March shows more strong growth. (05/04/2004)
Revenue trends - the worldwide semiconductor industry revenue and growth rate by year through 200,3 with 2004 through 2008 estimates. Updated (4/20/2004)
Industry status as of April 2004. Worldwide revenue for February shows strong growth over Januaries record pace. (04/02/2004)
Industry status as of March 2004. Worldwide revenue numbers for January are the best on record. (03/01/2004)
Industry status as of February 2004. (02/04/2004)