- Industry status as of May 2004
- The SIAyesterday released revenue numbers for March 2004 of $19.23 billion dollars (raw numbers not 3 month moving average). The March numbers are up from $13.81 billion dollars in January and $15.78 billion dollars in February and represent a 33.5% year over year increase for March and a 34.1% year-to-date year over year growth rate! March also represents the third month in a row that exceeds the same month during the 2000 peak year!
- Figure 1 illustrates the monthly revenue for the worldwide semiconductor market for 2000 through 2004.
- The SIAyesterday released revenue numbers for March 2004 of $19.23 billion dollars (raw numbers not 3 month moving average). The March numbers are up from $13.81 billion dollars in January and $15.78 billion dollars in February and represent a 33.5% year over year increase for March and a 34.1% year-to-date year over year growth rate! March also represents the third month in a row that exceeds the same month during the 2000 peak year!
- Figure 1. Monthly worldwide semiconductor revenue.
In figure 1 the blue line represents 2000, the peak semiconductor revenue year. The green line is 2001 revenue, note how 2001 starts in-line with 2000 and then in April drops down (the beginning of the downturn). The orange line for 2002 starts in-line with 2001 and then in July begins to show some improvement (the beginning of the recovery). The purple line for 2003 shows recovery over 2002 every month with the fourth quarter showing significant progress towards recovering back to 2000 levels. Finally, the grey squares are 2004 revenue, with January, February and March showing growth over the year 2000 peak.
In 2003 the worldwide semiconductor market totaled $166.4 billion dollars made up of $140 billion dollars in ICs and $26.4 billion dollars in discretes. For 2004 we expect IC revenue growth to be over 40% reaching $202.5 billion dollars! Assuming lower growth for discretes of say 15%, the total semiconductor industry would reach $233 billion dollars, 40% growth. This is greater growth than other forecastors are predicting but our modeling of unit growth and capacity makes us believe that utilization will be flat in Q1 and then climb the rest of the year driving up ASPs at the same time that unit volume is growing. With 2004 already showing 34% growth in what we expect to be the weakest quarter, our 40% growth forecast looks like it may even be conservative.
Related articles
- Industry status as of April 2004. (04/02/2004)
- Industry status as of March 2004. (03/01/2004)
- Industry status as of February 2004. (02/04/2004)
- November continues to show strength in the recovery. (01/05/2004)
- October numbers show more strength - new SIA data shows a recovery continuing to pick up speed. (12/03/2003)
- The recovery is picking up steam - new SIA data indicates a strengthening recovery. (11/03/2003)
- Recovery Status September 2003 - is the recovery picking up speed? (09/29/2003)
- Recovery Status August 2003 - the first six months of 2003 have shown growth over 2002, but as each additional month of data is added the year-to-date growth rate is falling. (08/28/2003)
- Business conditions July 2003 - What is the status of the semiconductor market as of July 2003. (07/27/2003)
- Has the recovery stalled? - an updated examination of monthly sales data for the worldwide semiconductor industry shows that from mid 2002 to March of 2003 the industry had started out performing 2001, but now revenue has fallen back to 2001 levels. Has the recovery stalled? (06/03/2003)
- Has the recovery begun? - an updated examination of monthly sales data for the worldwide semiconductor industry shows that since mid 2002 the industry is out performing 2001. Is this a recovery? (05/18/2003)
