- Industry status as of February 2004
- The SIA yesterday released revenue numbers for December 2003 of $17.28 billion dollars (raw numbers not 3 month moving average). The latest numbers show continued strength for the semiconductor industry.
- Year-to-date year over year growth
- Decembers revenue is an increase of 28.3% versus December 2002. For the full year the semiconductor industry has grown 17.5% versus 2002.. December is the sixth consecutive month that the year-to-date percentage growth has grown, see table.
- Table 1 - Year-to-date growth rate for 2003 versus 2002
MonthGrowthJan19.5%Feb16.7%Mar13.0%Apr12.5%May12.3%Jun11.7%Jul11.6%Aug12.4%Sep13.8%Oct15.4%Nov16.4%Dec17.5%
- Month versus month revenue
- Another interesting analysis of the status of the recovery is the graph illustrated in figure 1.
- Figure 1 - Semiconductor revenue by month for 2000 to 2003.
In figure 1 the blue line represents 2000, the peak semiconductor revenue year. The green line is 2001 revenue, note how 2001 starts in-line with 2000 and then in April drops down (the beginning of the downturn). The orange line for 2002 starts in-line with 2001 and then in July begins to show some improvement (the beginning of the recovery). The purple line for 2003 shows recovery over 2002 every month with the fourth quarter showing significant progress towards recovering back to 2000 levels.
- Recent reports from the SIA suggest that Q1-04 is running in-line with Q4-03. We currently expect that January will be the first month in the recovery to have higher revenue than the corresponding month in 2000. We also believe that the revenue growth for 2004 may be higher than other forecasters are predicting.
- Conclusion
- 2003 ended very strong and 2004 appears to be starting out strong as well. We now believe the growth for 2004 will exceed 30% for the full year.
Related articles
- November continues to show strength in the recovery. (01/05/2004)
- October numbers show more strength - new SIA data shows a recovery continuing to pick up speed. (12/03/2003)
- The recovery is picking up steam - new SIA data indicates a strengthening recovery. (11/03/2003)
- Recovery Status September 2003 - is the recovery picking up speed? (09/29/2003)
- Recovery Status August 2003 - the first six months of 2003 have shown growth over 2002, but as each additional month of data is added the year-to-date growth rate is falling. (08/28/2003)
- Business conditions July 2003 - What is the status of the semiconductor market as of July 2003. (07/27/2003)
- Has the recovery stalled? - an updated examination of monthly sales data for the worldwide semiconductor industry shows that from mid 2002 to March of 2003 the industry had started out performing 2001, but now revenue has fallen back to 2001 levels. Has the recovery stalled? (06/03/2003)
- Has the recovery begun? - an updated examination of monthly sales data for the worldwide semiconductor industry shows that since mid 2002 the industry is out performing 2001. Is this a recovery? (05/18/2003)
