Seconductor Industry Status January 2006

Industry status as of January 2006
The SIA has released revenue numbers for November 2005 of $19.71 billion dollars (raw numbers not 3 month moving average). The November numbers are up from $18.07 billion dollars in November of 2004 and represents a 9.1% growth month over month. This is a strong pick up after Octobers 3.7% month over month growth.

Year-to-date the growth over the same months from 2004 Started the year very strong at 25.4%, then successively moderated until July before growing again for August and September. October moderated with November again showing good growth (see table)
Month YTD growth Jan 25.4% Feb 17.4% Mar 13.2% Apr 11.3% May 9.1% June 6.8% July 6.1% Aug 6.2% Sep 6.6% Oct 6.3% Nov 6.5%

Figure 1 illustrates the monthly revenue for the worldwide semiconductor market for 2000, 2004 and 2005.


Figure 1. Monthly worldwide semiconductor revenue.

In figure 1, the blue line represents 2000, the prior peak semiconductor revenue year. The grey represents 2004 revenue, with January through July showing progressively moderating growth over the year 2000 peak, August dipping under the year 2000 level and September through November showing some recovery before December drops back below the year 2000 levels. The brown circles represent 2005 revenue. Notice how all the months in Q1 and Q2 up until June have been above the same months in any previous Q1 or Q2 but June dipped below 2004 levels, July moved back slightly above 2004 levels, August and September are above 2004 levels with September showing strong growth , October showing moderating growth and November once again a strong growth month.

We haven't done a full 2006 forecast yet but based on a reasonably strong fourth quarter and increasing utilization rates we expect 2006 to be a growth year with greater than ten percent growth probable.

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Industry Status as of January 2006 - November revenue growth once again strengthened after a weak October. We currently expect 2006 to be an up year with greater than 10% growth probable.
Industry Status as of December 2005 - October revenue growth is weaker than Septembers strong growth.
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Industry status as of February 2004. (02/04/2004)

Month	YTD growth
Jan	25.4%
Feb	17.4%
Mar	13.2%
Apr	11.3%
May	9.1%
June	6.8%
July	6.1%
Aug	6.2%
Sep	6.6%
Oct	6.3%
Nov	6.5%