Integrated Circuit History and Forecast

Introduction

Updated March 4, 2006 based on new actual numbers for Q4 - 2005.

The following table presents historical and forecast quarterly data for the Integrated Circuit industry worldwide. Please note this is integrated circuits only, not the total semiconductor market that also includes discrete devices. The forecast data is based on IC Knowledge's proprietary forecast model as of March 4, 2006.

Quarter	Revenue ($B)	Units (B)	Wafer starts (M)	Fab utilization (%)	Comment
1999-Q1	$29.3	15.1	10.5	84.0%	Actual
1999-Q2	$29.3	16.2	11.3	89.1%	Actual
1999-Q3	$33.0	17.7	11.7	90.9%	Actual
1999-Q4	$37.9	19.2	12.3	93.9%	Actual
2000-Q1	$39.2	19.6	13.6	94.6%	Actual
2000-Q2	$43.5	21.7	14.1	95.0%	Actual
2000-Q3	$47.9	23.0	15.3	96.4%	Actual
2000-Q4	$46.3	22.2	15.5	92.8%	Actual
2001-Q1	$36.8	19.0	13.9	83.9%	Actual
2001-Q2	$29.3	17.0	12.5	73.2%	Actual - downturn begins
2001-Q3	$26.0	16.3	11.0	64.2%	Actual - downturn continues
2001-Q4	$26.4	16.2	11.0	65.9%	Actual - downturn continues
2002-Q1	$27.8	17.1	12.6	77.3%	Actual - downturn continues
2002-Q2	$29.0	19.8	14.2	87.0%	Actual - downturn continues
2002-Q3	$31.4	20.8	14.3	86.3%	Actual - downturn ends
2002-Q4	$32.3	20.4	13.6	81.4%	Actual
2003-Q1	$30.9	20.2	13.4	82.8%	Actual
2003-Q2	$31.8	21.6	14.6	85.9%	Actual
2003-Q3	$36.7	22.9	15.7	88.2%	Actual
2003-Q4	$40.6	25.9	16.3	91.6%	Actual
2004-Q1	$40.9	25.7	16.7	93.4%	Actual
2004-Q2	$44.8	27.2	17.4	95.4%	Actual
2004-Q3	$46.5	26.8	17.5	92.7%	Actual - weak growth - inventory and oil shock
2004-Q4	$46.4	25.2	16.4	86.0%	Actual - weak growth - possible short downturn begins
2005-Q1	$46.7	25.8	16.6	84.8%	Actual - growth returns
2005-Q2	$45.4	27.5	17.7	89.1%	Actual
2005-Q3	$49.7	31.0	18.5	90.1%	Actual - good growth and rising utilization
2005-Q4	$50.9	32.1	19.5	91.8%	Actual
2006-Q1	$48.2	30.5	19.0	86.6%	Forecast
2006-Q2	$55.0	33.4	20.6	91.2%	Forecast - good growth begins
2006-Q3	$61.1	36.0	21.4	92.0%	Forecast
2006-Q4	$65.3	37.2	22.6	93.9%	Forecast

In summary we see 2006 seeing 19% IC revenue growth.

Related articles

History and Forecast March 2006 - a quarterly history and forecast for ICs through the end of 2006 including dollars, units, wafer starts and utilization. We are forecasting 19% growth for 2006.
Industry Status as of March 2006 - January revenue is only up fractionally versus January of a year ago
Industry Status as of February 2006 - December continued Novembers strong revenue growth versus the same month in 2004. 2005 has now ended with 7.1% growth versus 2004. We currently expect 2006 to be an up year with greater than 10% growth probable.
Industry Status as of January 2006 - November revenue growth once again strengthened after a weak October. We currently expect 2006 to be an up year with greater than 10% growth probable.
Industry Status as of December 2005 - October revenue growth is weaker than Septembers strong growth.
Industry Status as of November 2005 - September revenue growth continues to show a strong recovery from the weak/negative growth of the last few months. We have been predicting stronger revenue growth in the second half of 2005 and with August and now September moving in that direction we are increasingly confident in a strong second half.
Industry Status as of October 2005 - August revenue growth has made a strong recovery from the weak/negative growth of the last few months. We have been predicting stronger revenue growth in the second half and August certainly represents a positive step in that direction.
Industry Status as of September 2005 - July revenue growth has recovered to slightly positive growth versus Junes negative growth. We expect revenue growth to strengthen in the second half but we are concerned about the effect of high energy prices.
Industry Status as of August 2005 - June worldwide revenue numbers are down from June 2004 representing the first month of negative growth this year. We currently expect the second half to strengthen but our confidence in our forecast is not strong.
Industry Status as of July 2005 - May worldwide revenue is showing moderating growth compared to prior months in 2005 rasing the specter of a weaker than expected second half.
Industry Status as of June 2005 - Aprils worldwide revenue continues to show growth although somewhat slower than at the start of Q1. Recent announcements by several global leaders in semiconductors have us bullish for the balance of Q2.
History and Forecast May 2005 - quarterly revenue, units, wafer starts and utilization for the IC industry.
Industry Status as of May 2005 - Worldwide revenue for March continued to show growth that began in January. We are now working on an upward revision to our 2005 forecast.
Industry Status as of April 2005 - Worldwide revenue for February continued the strong growth that began in January.
Industry Status as of March 2005 - Worldwide revenue for January 2005 was up sharply versus any January previously recorded. January revenue was well above where we expected it to be and if this trend continues we will have to revise our 2005 forecast sharply upward.
Industry Status as of February 2005 - Worldwide growth for December is once again weakening and we now believe that 2005 will show negative IC revenue growth.
History and Forecast Jan 2005 - quarterly revenue, units, wafer starts and utilization for the IC industry. (01/19/2005) Updated (01/24/2005)
Industry Status as of January 2005 - Worldwide growth for November is strengthening and we now believe that although 2004 will end weak and 2005 start weak, IC revenue growth for 2005 will be 18%.