- Introduction
- Figure 1 presents the cumulative number of 300mm Fabs currently announced, under construction or in production by year (green bars). Figure 1 is up-to-date as of August 8th, 2001 and includes data on 45 projects tracked in the IC Knowledge database. The blue bars are the number of additional Fabs required if 300mm wafers are to ramp up at historical rates (based on 200mm). It is interesting to note that in spite of the severe downturn in the industry, 300mm Fab projects are forging ahead. In fact 2002 is already planned to match historical new wafer size ramp rates and 2003 is close to historical levels, 2004 is still far enough away that we could get enough new site announcements to bring the build-out up to historical levels if warranted. The rate of 300mm Fab construction represents a huge bet by the industry that growth will return in 2002 in earnest. In past downturns the few companies that kept investing made large market share gains when the industry rebounded. We can't help noting that if everyone follows that strategy, then overcapacity issues don't work through the system properly and the downturn can be prolonged. There is a significant risk that continual overbuilding may be taking place now.
- Figure 1 presents the cumulative number of 300mm Fabs currently announced, under construction or in production by year (green bars). Figure 1 is up-to-date as of August 8th, 2001 and includes data on 45 projects tracked in the IC Knowledge database. The blue bars are the number of additional Fabs required if 300mm wafers are to ramp up at historical rates (based on 200mm). It is interesting to note that in spite of the severe downturn in the industry, 300mm Fab projects are forging ahead. In fact 2002 is already planned to match historical new wafer size ramp rates and 2003 is close to historical levels, 2004 is still far enough away that we could get enough new site announcements to bring the build-out up to historical levels if warranted. The rate of 300mm Fab construction represents a huge bet by the industry that growth will return in 2002 in earnest. In past downturns the few companies that kept investing made large market share gains when the industry rebounded. We can't help noting that if everyone follows that strategy, then overcapacity issues don't work through the system properly and the downturn can be prolonged. There is a significant risk that continual overbuilding may be taking place now.
- Figure 1. 300mm wafer transition.
- Figure 1. 300mm wafer transition.
- Related articles
- 300mm transition - cummulative number of new 300mm Fabs by year from our October forecast. (10/1/2001)
- 300mm cost comparison - comparison of 130nm technology - 300mm DRAM and microprocessor wafer costs. (8/14/2001)
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